Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,569$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(122 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(0.181 \times 10^{0.041t}\) (doubling rate \(7.4\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,024$ on 2020-06-01

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,513$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(764 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,168.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,168.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $661$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(134 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{587.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(587.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,958$ on 2020-06-01

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,195$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(55 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(22,294.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(9.13 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 61.5)}}\) (asimptote \(118.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,669$ on 2020-06-01

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,357$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(452 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{463,956.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(463,956.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $705$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(18.3 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,361$ on 2020-06-01

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,384$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(505 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,885.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 115.8)}}\) (asimptote \(191,885.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,005$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(83.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,273.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,273.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,932$ on 2020-06-01

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,306$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(24.3 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,275.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 71.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,275.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 25.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,094$ on 2020-06-01

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(165 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.7}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.39 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.9}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 11.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-06-01

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,655$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,699.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,699.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(0.64 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(19.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-06-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 90%
Chad recovered 54%
Morocco recovered 48%
Sierra Leone recovered 22%
Algeria recovered 6%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $958$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(363 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{906.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(906.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(11.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(73.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-06-01

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $790$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(53.6 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{835.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(835.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(16.8 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64.6}{1 + 10^{-0.095 (t - 13.2)}}\) (asimptote \(64.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $185$ on 2020-06-01

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,833$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,110.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,110.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $205$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(67.6 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(194.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,735$ on 2020-06-01

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $865$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(49.7 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,103.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,103.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(7.11 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.2}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 21.8)}}\) (asimptote \(50.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-01